USDA Record of Farm Export Forecast – AgriNews

Washington — US agricultural exports are projected to reach a record $ 164 billion in fiscal year 2021.

The USDA’s latest forecast shows a record high of $ 28 billion, or 21%, from fiscal year 2020, and an increase of $ 7 billion from the February forecast. A historical export record of $ 152.3 billion was set in fiscal year 2014.

This report was published by USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Services and Economic Research Services. The USDA said corn, soybeans, livestock, chicken and dairy products drove the growth.

Soybean exports are projected at record levels due to the surge in demand from China. USDA forecasts exports of $ 28.9 billion, an increase of $ 1.5 billion from the February estimate.

Corn exports are expected to increase $ 3.2 billion to $ 17.2 billion due to record volume and unit price increases due to strong demand and intensifying competition.

Overall exports of livestock, chicken and dairy products are projected to increase by $ 1.6 billion to $ 34.2 billion, up $ 1.6 billion from February forecasts, due to higher forecasts for dairy, pork and beef.

Dairy exports are projected to be $ 7 billion, an increase of $ 500 million, especially due to the high quantity and unit price of skim milk powder and whey and whey products.

Pork export forecasts have increased by $ 400 million due to higher unit prices and recovery in demand in some markets. Exports of beef and veal, a variety of beef and pork, chicken and commodities are projected to increase by $ 200 million each.

Increased cotton exports are expected to increase by $ 200 million. Horticultural export forecasts are down $ 400 million to $ 34.1 billion due to the low unit value of nuts.

Exports to China increased $ 3.5 billion from February forecasts to a record $ 35 billion due to record shipments of soybeans, corn, nuts, beef, wheat and chicken products.

China is projected to remain the largest market for US agricultural exports in fiscal year 2021, followed by Canada and Mexico.

US agricultural imports for fiscal year 2021 are projected to increase $ 4.3 billion from February forecasts to $ 141.8 billion. This increase is primarily due to the expected increase in imports of livestock, horticulture, sugar and tropical products.

The forecasts in this report are based on the information available at the time of the release of the USDA Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast on May 12. The adoption of the World Trade Organization’s internationally recognized definition of “agricultural products” will come into effect with the August release.

Global recovery

The Department of Agriculture’s Department of Overseas Agriculture and the Department of Economic Research also focused on the pandemic and economic recovery.

“Highly vaccinated countries are beginning to relax restrictions, while others are struggling to contain the ongoing crisis. In the United States, optimism about the resumption of a full service sector is It’s mixed with supply chain bottlenecks that are currently curbing commodity consumption and raising attention to potential high inflation, “the report said.

Private consumption is returning rapidly as more adults are fully vaccinated in the United States.

“More than expected enthusiasm for economic recovery pushed up stock prices and reversed some of last year’s biggest trends. Technology companies that benefited from extended telecommuting hours gained a significant boost in 2020. However, it is significantly below the performance of the consumer aperiodic companies in 2021 so far, “continues the report.

Normalization of conditions is expected to result in a significant shift in spending on the global service sector. Overall, real gross domestic product in the world is expected to increase by about 5.5% in 2021.

The US real GDP growth forecast was raised from an estimated 4% in February to 5.8% after a 3.5% reduction in fiscal year 2020. Eurozone economic growth forecasts will be lowered from 4.5% to 4.2% as vaccine deployments slowly catch up with the target. the goal.

Real GDP in North America is projected to increase by 5.4% in 2021, after decreasing by 4% in 2020. Real GDP in Canada and Mexico is projected to increase by 5% in 2021, after decreasing by 8.3% to 5.4% in 2020. %,Respectively. USDA Record of Farm Export Forecast – AgriNews

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