Soybeans, corn, wheat ahead of Monday’s reports

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Soybeans, corn, wheat ahead of Monday’s reports

Soybeans were notably higher on fund and technical buys, but ended the week lower. Soybeans rose on solid demand, the broader market was largely upbeat during the session and the dollar index edged lower. Rain is forecast for parts of the Plains and Midwest this week, which may stabilize crops in some areas before harvest. Taiwan bought 104,000 tonnes of new-crop US soybeans on Friday morning, but demand uncertainties for China are ongoing due to the COVID-19 lockdown. The USDA attaché in China has cut its import outlook for the world’s largest buyer, citing those restrictions related to COVID and economic problems, now setting purchases for 2021/22 at 92 million tonnes and 2022/23 at 96.5 million tons. The bureau also cut its outlook for China’s 2022/23 domestic harvest due to drought and high temperatures in some key growing areas. The USDA will release four-week US export sales figures on Thursday the 15th^th. According to sources in Argentina, the government’s recent change in the exchange rate for soybeans has greatly increased farmers’ sales. Harvesting is underway in Ukraine, with reports showing sunflower totals at 392,000 tonnes and soybeans at 70,900 tonnes. Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was the world’s leading exporter of sunflower oil.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, adding to the week’s gains. Corn was monitoring the broader market and early yield numbers, with most analysts expecting the USDA to cut its projection on Monday. The USDA is also expected to decrease the total corn planted area following recent Farm Service Agency data. New USDA supply, demand and production figures, along with updated FSA figures, are released on Monday the 12th.^th at noon eastern/11 central. Reports indicate that 60 percent of Ukraine’s grain harvest is complete, with a total of 18,400 tons of corn. In South America, the trade is watching conditions ahead of large-scale planting in Argentina and Brazil and the potential impact of a third consecutive La Nina that will begin later this year.

Wheat was much higher on fund and technical buys, cementing a better weekly finish across the board. There was support from the lower dollar, which could help US export sales as wheat awaits developments in the Black Sea region. An upcoming meeting between Russia and Turkey could affect the pace of Ukraine’s exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine not only disrupted the export business, but limited available grain storage space, adding to problems during harvest. Reports from Ukraine put the current total for the current wheat crop at 19.2 million tons. IKAR now estimates Russia’s wheat harvest at a record 97 million tonnes, with wheat exports of 46 million tonnes. The USDA supply and demand report on Monday is expected to have minimal changes for domestic numbers, with the most significant adjustments possibly on the global side of the ledger. Taking China out of the equation, the USDA is already projecting the tightest global wheat supply in more than a decade.