Rain is expected in the west, generally dry in other areas – AgFax

Dry, cracked soil. Photo by Texas AgriLife Extension


This US Drought Monitor (USDM) week (September 14-20) has been dominated by an upper-level ridge over the central contiguous United States (CONUS). It was bracketed by an upper-level trough that moved in from the northeast earlier in the week and an upper-level Pacific trough that moved westward later in the week. Pacific weather systems moved across the northern states between troughs.

This pattern led to more precipitation in the west and partly in the northeast. Fronts associated with Pacific Ocean systems produced showers and thunderstorms across parts of the central and northern Plains to the middle and upper Mississippi Valley.

In the rest of the CONUS, a large dry air mass covered much of the southern plains and east throughout the week. Rain came along a stationary front covering Florida that was associated with the southern edge of the air mass, but much of the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest had a dry week. Average temperatures were above normal from the Plains to the Great Lakes and cooler than normal across much of West, Southeast and northern New England.

The tropical system brought heavy rains to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Drought or abnormally dry conditions extended or intensified across northern parts of the West, from the central and northern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, and along parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Drought or abnormally dry conditions intensified where rain fell, particularly in parts of Florida, New Mexico and the Northeast, from Iowa to Illinois and through Puerto Rico.


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In the southern half, due to a stationary front, rains are falling Florida for most of the week with widespread rainfall totals of 2+ inches. This led to the reduction of D0 and D1 in the south Florida. But Florida the panhandle and much of the rest of the Southeast has had no rain this week. At lower temperatures, the rate of evapotranspiration was low.

Added D0 spots Alabama and adjacent parts of Art Florida fraud and south-west Georgia due to the withering of the pasture and the lowering of the streams. D0 is extended and D1 has been added to the eastern one North Carolina and Virginia where soil moisture, streams and water tables have declined and crops have been stressed.


Several areas of the Gulf Coast and west Texas this week saw up to half an inch of rain, but the southern region was mostly dry with no precipitation. The moderate to severe drought eased slightly in several places in the south of the country Texas, and abnormally dry and moderate drought extended into several other areas of the Lone Star State, and abnormally dry extended into Tennessee.

But the biggest changes took place in Oklahoma and Arkansas. D1-D4 extended art Oklahoma and D0-D2 expanded art Arkansas. Soils continue to dry, and groundwater and stream levels are low. According to statistics from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), 82% of Oklahoma moisture of the upper layer of the soil from low to very insufficient (from dry to very dry). The only drier mid-September years in the 2010 data were 2011 and 2012, which were very severe drought years.

All states in the region except Louisiana and Mississippi had half or more of the moisture of the upper layer of the soil with a lack or very lack of moisture. Almost 70% of pastures and pastures c Oklahoma was in poor to very poor condition. Ponds in Oklahoma are drying up and 63% of the cotton crop is in poor to very poor condition.


Two or more inches of rain has fallen across the Southeast this week Iowa to the central one Illinois, and over the northern parts of the Midwest. In other areas, up to half an inch of rain fell, and in the southern areas (south Missouri to kentucky) and in some areas of the Great Lakes there was virtually no rain.

D2-D3 decreased in the southeast Iowa to the neighbor Illinois and north-east Missouri where the heaviest rains fell. D0-D1 contracted in Illinois and D0 decreased in parts of Indiana and Minnesota.

But the bigger change has been the expansion of drought in several Midwestern states. D0-D3 grew in Missouri, D0-D2 extended into Minnesota and Wisconsin, and D0-D1 are expanded in parts Michigan and Illinois.

High plains

It rained in some regions of the High Plains, while other parts were dry. Up to two inches fell locally in parts of several states. Particularly dry areas were observed in some areas Dakota, Montana, Kansas, and Colorado. The lack of rain was accompanied by unusually high temperatures throughout the region, which increased evapotranspiration and accelerated soil drying. Desiccation of soil and dry ponds and waterholes led to a widespread expansion of D0-D2 in North Dakota and Montanaand D0-D4 art South Dakota and Kansas.

Groundwater levels are low with wells in Wichita, Kansas, runs dry. According to media reports, a water emergency has occurred in the southeastern city of Kanei Kansas, when water stopped flowing over the Little Caney River Dam; 6 weeks of water left. D1 and D2 are expanded in parts Colorado, and D3 extended to the southeast Wyoming while other parts of the state saw reductions in D0 and D1.

Nebraska there was also some reduction in D2, but expansion in D1-D3 in other parts of the state. According to USDA statistics, half or more of the topsoil in all states in the region was deficient or severely deficient. U Nebraska and Kansas, three-quarters of pastures and pastures were in poor or very poor condition, while the value was 50% for Colorado, 55% for south dakota, and 58% in favor Montana.


Pacific weather systems dropped 2 inches or more of rain in parts of the central and northern parts of the country California, and over local areas of the Great Basin and south New Mexico. A half inch or more of rain fell across much of the interior west. Other parts, especially the big part Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho to the northwest montana, and south California into parts New Mexicowere dry this week.

Groundwater levels are still low and many reservoirs have had very low levels, near record lows. Water levels in most reservoirs c New Mexico well below average. The August 2022 month-end totals at the state’s 12 major reservoirs were among the three lowest August totals since 1990. This week’s rainfall barely made up for the shortfall accumulated over the past 5 years, so little the map has improved this week in areas that have seen precipitation.

One exception was the afternoon New Mexico and related arizona, where D1-D3 declined in wetter areas this week which were also affected by the wet monsoon season.

In the northern parts of the Western Region, D0 was added to Western Washington and north-west Oregon where flows were low, very high temperatures increased evapotranspiration and continued to dry soils, and precipitation was below normal for the past 3 months. D1 extended in p Idaho where several indicators reflected dry conditions over the past 3 months, and several dozen large wildfires continued to burn.

According to statistics from the US Department of Agriculture, all states in the region except California, Nevada, and Arizona had half or more topsoil moisture with deficient or very deficient moisture.


Two or more inches of rain fell in northern areas New York and New England; half an inch or more fell in areas south of this region and east Maine and parts West Virginia; and less than half an inch happened more Pennsylvania and New Jersey. There was almost no precipitation during most of the rains Maryland, Delaware, and south New Jersey.

The rain was enough to cut D0-D2 in pieces New York and New England, which led to the removal of D3 from Rhode Island and south Massachusetts, though D3 around Boston remained. D0-D2 were also trimmed Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.

Look ahead

A strong upper level low pressure system will move across the northern half of the CONUS during September 22-27, while high pressure generally dominates the southern half of the country. By the end of the period, the upper-level circulation pattern will consist of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. This scenario will result in above normal temperatures in the west and south and below normal in the northeast.

From the Four Corners states to the northern Rockies and east to the central and northern Plains and across parts of the Great Lakes, a half-inch or more of rain is forecast for much of the Northeast, with locally up to 2 inches. , and over southern Florida. Half an inch or less is expected over Oregon, the Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley to the Appalachian Range, and the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Light precipitation is forecast with no precipitation in western Washington, California and Nevada, the southern Plains to the southeast, and over parts of the Midwest. September 28 – October 5 is expected to preserve the western ridges and eastern valleys.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely west to the Mississippi Valley and Alaska, with cooler-than-normal temperatures northeast to the southern Appalachians and over southwestern Alaska. The circulation pattern is likely to produce below-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast, across the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley and over the Ohio Valley, as well as western Alaska.

Rainfall is above normal along the southeast coast, the eastern half of Alaska, and a small area in the Four Corners states. Rain is expected in the west, generally dry in other areas – AgFax

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