Wheat – a relatively cautious USDA report leaves the short-term picture on the drift, but sentiment could turn bullish if Russian-Ukrainian tensions escalate. In the long run, some recovery in production is expected, although Canadian areas and soil moisture will need to be monitored when Spring.
Corn – World dependence on South American crops still remains where saffron is only planted. However, there is uncertainty around the US 2022 zone, leaving the market pending some new news.
Barley – Barley tends to track wheat markets, and again, the intentions of Canadian plantings should be monitored. If North Africa stays dry, it could increase demand for barley imports, in turn maintaining prices.
The USDA report last week gave limited direction to the market, but prices still ended the week higher. Many trade officials believe that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s South American crop reduction has been too cautious. Estimates are expected to be further reduced in the coming months. Conab, Brazil’s official forecaster, cut 0.6 million tonnes from its forecast for corn, tying it to 1.7 million tonnes lower than the USDA estimate, at 112.3 million tonnes.
For the week (Friday to Friday), the futures contract for corn in Chicago on May 22 increased by $ 11.32 per tonne, despite bearish USDA estimates. Closing the week at $ 256.10 per tonne, it reached a contractual all-time high. The new harvest (December 22) also closed the week at a contract high of $ 234.15 per tonne, up $ 8.26 per tonne from the previous Friday.
Wheat markets also found support last week. On Friday, there was a jump in world wheat markets amid growing concerns about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could disrupt exports. Both countries are major exporters of wheat. It is expected that in 2021/22 they will account for 29% of world wheat exports (USDA). This means that any disruptions to exports inevitably cause problems with global accessibility. Russia and the world media accuse the United States of panic, but the situation is conducive to market sentiment and will be a point of view.
Fodder wheat futures in the UK have followed trends in world markets. On Friday 22 May and 22 November the values rose, ending the week at £ 221.05 per tonne and £ 201.15 per tonne respectively.
Despite the weekly rise in prices for wheat supplied to the northwest, the premium compared to futures on May 22 has shrunk even more (May supply). The premium was £ 66.50 per tonne over feed wheat futures on Thursday (February 10) against £ 68.00 per tonne the week before.
The report on Friday for the first time this year showed the price of wheat of the new harvest (November 22). Wheat supplies in November to Northampton averaged £ 238.00 per tonne, or around £ 38.00 per tonne on futures. The premium at the same time last year (compared to futures on November 21) was just £ 27.00 per tonne. This indicates some nervousness about having wheat in the next marketing year.
Rapeseed – Supplies of old crops remain limited until harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. Canadian plans to plant will boost sentiment, but production is expected to resume in the 2022/23 marketing year.
Soybeans – a downside to South American crops combined with increased global demand and supply supporting soybeans. There may be long-term support if the new U.S. crop is delayed or faced with adverse weather.
World Markets – The Chicago Soybean contract up 1.8% from May 22 to Friday closed at $ 582.79 a tonne.
This increase is facilitated by constant dry weather, which inhibits soybean production from South America. Last week there were cuts from the USDA to Argentine (-1.5 million tonnes) and Brazilian (-5.0 million tonnes) estimates of soybean production.
In addition, in a monthly update, Conab cut soybean production in Brazil by 15.0 million tons. He now estimates the harvest at 125.5 million tons, citing dry weather in the southern states as the reason for the decline.
Commodity funds have been net buyers of Chicago Soybean futures for the past week. Additional support for soybean prices was US export sales. Between February 4 and 10, more than 1.8 million tons of old and new soybean crops were sold to China and to unknown destinations.
South American conditions will remain in the spotlight this week. Light rains are expected in Argentina, but in some areas the temperature remains higher than usual. Heavy rains are expected in Brazil next week, which could delay the harvest.
Another factor driving food oil markets is Brent oil. The nearest contract rose 3.3% on Friday at the end of the week to $ 94.44 a barrel. Support for oil stems from fears that Russia could invade Ukraine, disrupting energy exports.
Paris rapeseed futures (August 22) closed on Friday at 619.00 euros per tonne, up 16.00 euros per tonne for the week. Rapeseed delivered to the UK (in Erit, hvst-22) was quoted at £ 515.00 per tonne, an increase of £ 1.00 per tonne per week.
Prices in the UK did not include the same gains as Paris futures because our survey was conducted late Friday morning and Paris rape futures were volatile throughout the day. Futures contracts on August 22 traded in the range of 9.25 euros / ton.
In addition, the sterling strengthened (+ 1.11%) against the euro during the week, ending Friday at £ 1 = € 1.1141.
https://www.farminglife.com/country-and-farming/the-ni-market-report-3575306 NI Market Report Farm life